Weekend Preview: I GUARANTEE a PR!

It’s not my style to get bold or make outlandish predictions, but I absolutely guarantee that I will set a new personal best this weekend. I will come back here and say I told you so, because I know I will get the job done. As long as I don’t sleep through my alarm and I get to the start line, I will come home with a PR. You heard it here first, period.

Of course, I’m not talking about my marathon on Sunday. I’m talking about my 15K on Saturday. I know I’ll set a PR because it’s my first-ever 15K. This weekend is a triple, in a way. I’m heading out to Tampa for the Gasparilla Marathon. I’ll be running the 15K on Saturday morning at 7 a.m., a 5K at 9:30 a.m. and then the full marathon Sunday morning at 6 a.m.

15K
I’ve never run a 15K before and I’m not really looking forward to this. You might be wondering why I’d dread a race that’s only 9.3 miles when I race 26.2 every weekend. Well, it’s simple. To get a time that’s respectable for my ability, I have to run pretty fast — considerably faster than I run in a marathon. And I have to keep that pace up for 9.3 miles!

I’ll tell anybody who asks that a 10K is my least-favorite distance to race, because it’s basically a sprint for 6.2 miles. I’m thinking that this 15K is going to be pretty tough for me. I’m not good at the shorter stuff. Just going off of my best marathon time this year, 3:07:21, the race calculators say I should be able to run a 19:13 5K and a 39:55 10K. I haven’t hit either of those times, yet I’ve actually run a marathon more than seven minutes quicker than my best time this year.

My 5K PR is 19:20. My 10K PR is 40:39. Add them together and you get 59:59. The calculators say, based off my 3:07:21 in Carlsbad, that I should be able to run a 1:01:52 (6:38/mile). I’m going to set my goal at sub-1:02 (1:01:59 or better), but I don’t think I’ll hit it. I’ll certainly try, though.

Whatever my time is, it’ll be a PR, like I promised!

5K
I’ll have just under 90 minutes after the end of the 15K before I run the 5K. That’s just enough time to get some stiff legs and lose motivation. I don’t dread 5Ks as much as 10Ks, but they’re hard, too. Running 3.1 miles isn’t tough for me. But doing it so hard that my lungs just about burn is a challenge.

I guess racing at any distance is tough. I’m trying to remember why I do this? Maybe it’s the ice cream and the In-N-Out, I don’t know. But whatever the case, I come up short in 5Ks. My best was 19:20 on a pancake-flat course in 2008, although on that same course last year, I went 20:30. In all fairness, I was coming off and injury and was fighting to regain speed when I was slow last fall. But I’m not positive I’d go much quicker than 20 flat right now.

I’m going to be aiming to go as fast as I can. I have no idea what’s in me. I think I’m getting faster with the 26.2 miles of hard running I’m doing every weekend, but I’m not 100 percent. If that speed is there, maybe I can fight through the pain for 20 lousy minutes? 5Ks are interesting. I get rolling and my wheels turn almost effortlessly that first mile, then I fight through a burn in the second mile, and I finally watch my time slip away over that last mile. A 5K is one race where it’s actually OK to go out “too fast” and I certainly push it.

That all being said, my A goal is to PR (19:19), my B goal is to go sub-19:30 and my C goal is sub-20. I’ll be disappointed if I don’t go sub-20. That doesn’t mean I’ll be capable of that on Saturday given the proximity of that race to the 15K and 10 marathons this year, but I’ll still be disappointed. I expect to be able to produce a time in the 19s.

Marathon
I think I’m going to take a different approach on Sunday. Typically, I run by heart rate, take what the course gives me, and try to get as much as I can out of my body. This year has been a string of races that have been a little bit disappointing, but not by a lot. I have a 3:12, two 3:13s and a 3:15 sticking in my mind, but my 3:07 is where I want to be.

So, I think I’m going to switch it up this weekend. I know the course is pretty flat. Every course is going to have some rolling changes, but from what I know, this is a pretty level track. Instead of running by heart rate, I’m just going to go out and run by pace and try to stay in the 7:00-7:10 range. Nothing faster, regardless of what the course allows.

I’m not tremendously concerned about the impact of the 15K and the 5K and I’m curious to see if I can get myself in a good groove. I think it’s possible, but there’s only one way to find out. If I knock off miles in that range and stay consistent, I should be back in that 3:07 range. The weather and the course look favorable for me, so that’s what I’m going to try to do.

I get a lot of positive feedback when I turn a 3:12 or a 3:15, but I feel like I owe 3:0X finishes. I’d like to get a little bit of confidence back. I know I can run sub-3:10s and I want to start doing that consistently again. Fatigue is not a good enough excuse for me. In 2008, I went 3:06, 3:04 and 3:09 on a Sunday and then the following Saturday and Sunday. I know I have it in me, so I want to pull it out.

So, my A goal Sunday is 3:07:20 (new best for the year), B goal is 3:09:59 and C goal will be 3:12:37 (would be second-fastest of the year). I just feel like it’s time to step it up and produce better results.

And of course, I’m doing it in Tampa, the home course for Jen Morgan. As I mentioned yesterday, I’m really appreciative for everything she’s done for Operation Jack and I want to come up big in her race.

So that’s all I have. I’ll post a race report for the 15K and 5K on Saturday, but I don’t expect to have one for the marathon posted until that evening when I get back to California.

Have a great weekend, everybody! Thank you for your support!