Ahh, lucky No. 13. I’m superstitious, and I’m staring at some tough luck this weekend. For starters, I’m going Sunday to Saturday between races and only have five days to recover. On top of that, though, my race, the Catalina Marathon, offers BY FAR the most challenging course I’ve faced so far this year.

Guess My Time And Win Operation Jack Gear!
First things first, I’m trying to raise money, but I’m trying to do that as painlessly as possible. So I’m thinking an easy way is to have a weekly contest to guess my time. Basically, if you think I’m going to run a 3:15, you’d guess my time by clicking here or on the “Donate Now” link at the top of any page and donate $3.15. That’s pretty easy — less than a cup of coffee at Starbucks.

And when you make your guess and your painless donation, you’re putting a big grin on my face. If you support what I’m doing, please participate in this contest!

The winner will be the person who guesses the closest to my time without going under. If you win, we’ll send you your choice of an Operation Jack t-shirt, tech shirt or sweatshirt. Last week’s winner was Molly Rearick, who has a sweatshirt on the way.

The good news: I’m not too slow, so it’s cheap to guess. The better news: I’ll give you analysis about how fast I expect to run.

Catalina Marathon Preview
This race is going to be tough. I’ve looked at finishing times from past competitors. Guys running 2:55 to 3:00 in road marathons are needing as much as 3:40 on this course. It’s primarily on a dirt fire road, but I’ll be wearing trainers because the footing should be fine.

The troubles come from the hills. I don’t think I’ve had a climb more than 200 feet in any of my races this year. Catalina welcomes me with more than 800 feet of gain in the first 2.5 miles.

To give you some perspective, the Boston Marathon is famous for having rolling hills, including four challenging climbs at the end. Talk about training for Boston with anybody and they’ll talk about hills. A friend of mine in Miami is getting anxious about Boston and worried about his hill training. Here’s the course profile for Boston:

Now here’s the profile for Catalina:

The widths of the 26.2 miles in these two images are the same. And the vertical scale is identical in both. So, when you look at the hills in the two course profiles, you’re comparing apples to apples.

This is not a 3:10 course for me. I’m going to try to keep it under 4:00 and I’d be thrilled if I pulled it off in sub-3:45. This race compares more to the two ultras I’ve run than the 40 marathons I’ve completed. In my first ultra, a 50K, I struggled on hills that were considerably steeper than this. It was my first experience to trail running and I learned that I wasn’t nearly as fit as I thought I was.

Just six weeks before I ran Boston in 3:01 last year, I went 5:37 in that 50K. I don’t remember what I hit 26.2 in, but it was probably somewhere around 4:40. That course was considerably tougher than Catalina, though.

Three weeks after Boston, I ran a 50-miler. The course was run at a higher elevation (4,500 – 6,500 feet) than Catalina (0 – 2,000 feet) and temps were about 85 degrees. Catalina should be in the 50s on Saturday. In that 50-miler, the hills were somewhat tame, probably comparable to Catalina. I did well early on, hitting mile 20 by about 3:00. I fell apart in the heat by about mile 23, though, and ended up needing 10:42 to finish the race.

Coincidentally, six days before that 50-miler, I ran a marathon in 3:11:37, just seven seconds quicker than I ran last Sunday. So, I’m heading into Saturday in somewhat similar condition. The difference will be cooler temps, lower elevation and more experience. So that’s why I think 3:45 is a reasonable A goal and 4:00 is a reasonable B goal. I’m setting my C goal at 4:30. Tiff will be out there and I’ll tell her to be at the finish line by the 3:30 mark, but not to start worrying until 4:30.

If I’m a betting man, which I’m not (how messed up would that be for me to win my own contest?), I’d go with $3.52 donation.

Oh, yeah, so I just mentioned Tiff will be there. We have babysitting! We’re truly going to be stuck on an island without the kids for 24 hours — it’s as much of a vacation as we’re going to get any time soon! We’re also going to get to meet Ally Phillips and her husband, who have been big supporters of Operation Jack since last summer.

The best part? We’ll be home Saturday night in time for dinner, and I will actually have an entire day off!

Don’t Forget To Enter The Contest!
It’s less than the cost of a box of Girl Scout Cookies, unless you think I’m going to struggle. But it’s definitely less than the cost of lunch at McDonald’s.

That’s All For This Week
I’ll post a race report on Saturday. Have a great weekend, everybody!

It seems like just a few days ago I was enjoying a great run in the Tampa Gasparilla Marathon. Is it already time to take a close look at my next race? Oh yeah, this is the joy of Operation Jack. My legs finally started feeling better yesterday. I’m carb-loading starting today. And I’m running the Napa Valley Marathon on Sunday.

First real quick, I’m trying something new as a fundraiser and contest all rolled into one. Guess my time this weekend in the form of an easy donation — donate $3.12 if you think I’m going to run a 3:12 or donate $3.03 if you think I’m going to run a 3:03. If you’re the closest without guessing too fast of a time, I’ll send you your choice of an Operation Jack tech shirt or an Operation Jack sweatshirt. If there’s a tie, I’ll randomly select a winner.

To make your donation, click the “DONATE NOW!” link at the top of any page on this site. Or, just click here. It’s super-simple, it’s less than the cost of a cup of coffee at Starbucks (unless you think I’m going to be really slow) and it helps Operation Jack. So please, show me some love! Here’s my guess about how fast I’m going to run and why:

Race #12: Napa Valley Marathon
I really wanted a good confidence boost last week in Tampa, not only because I haven’t been too thrilled with how I’ve been running, but because I wanted to feel comfortable giving Napa Valley a good run.

I knew I had a few things working against me last week. First, I was coming off of a 3:15. I had to fly from coast to coast. I ran a 15K and a 5K all-out the day before. I didn’t enough sleep the two nights prior. And the race went off at 6 a.m. Eastern, which was 3 a.m. according to my body, and I was up more than two hours before the start.

There’s plenty of physical aspects to a marathon. But there’s a big mental aspect to it, too. And to have run a semi-conservative 3:09 under those conditions, as I had planned, gives me all the confidence in the world heading into this weekend’s race.

In thinking back to last week, I think I could have been 2 to 3 minutes faster. I also think the run made me a little bit stronger. I’m obviously not 100 percent, nor will I be before next year, but I think I have a pretty good chance at running my fastest race of the year this weekend.

The course in Napa, from what I’ve seen, looks like it has some moderate rollers and has a small downhill net. Slight inclines don’t faze me right now, and I’m feeling pretty strong on gradual downhills. In Pasadena, I wasn’t very motivated, but there was one mile at about 12 on the south side of the Rose Bowl that was a very slight downhill. It felt essentially flat with a tiny, tiny bit of boost. I looked at the chart and it looks like the mile had a bout a 20-foot drop. For about the only time that day, I felt like I was in a zone and I turned a 6:53 mile. That’s one second slower than a sub-3 pace.

So, I know I can turn my legs a little bit. I think I got a good speed workout in last Saturday in with the 15K and the 5K. I’m feeling stronger physically, like I can keep my effort for the duration of the race. I’ll be well rested — I should be able to get eight hours of sleep Friday night and seven hours of sleep Saturday night. My flight is only an hour and I’m not switching time zones. I think the course is something I should be able to run well on. Oh, and I have a little bit of confidence for once.

I haven’t decided on my goal pace yet, and I probably won’t until about 1/2 mile in. But I’m planning on giving sub-3 a long look early on. I’ll dial in to a 6:50 pace and see how it goes. If I can stay there, I’ll give try stay between 6:45 and 6:50. Any faster and I’ll blow up. Any slower and it’ll just end up being another close call. I think it’s at the outside edge of what I’m capable of. I’ll be able to tell within a mile or two if it’s impossible, and if so, I’ll dial back and try to tick off miles consistently between 7:00 and 7:05. The weather forecast says high of 60, low of 44, so I expect it to be pretty ideal. There’s a possibility of showers, but I’m not at all worried. Weather should be very good for running.

So stretch goal for this week is sub-3. B goal is sub-3:05. C goal is a 3:07:20, which would be my fastest time so far this year. I really feel that all things considered, I should be able to pull off that C goal. That’s not a gimme — of my 39 marathons, only six have been that fast. But at this point, I expect at least that much out of myself.

If I was participating in the contest I mentioned at the top, I’d probably pledge $3.06. But that’s just me. As I’ve learned 39 times, running 26.2 miles as hard as you can is not easy and there are no guarantees.

Post-Race Dinner
Souplantation! That’s like Sweet Tomatoes depending on where you live. They have tomato soup and grilled cheese focaccia bread right now! And ice cream! I love these nearby races because I don’t miss much time with the kids. We’ll get to over-indulge together on Sunday and I can’t wait. Ice cream for dessert, of course!

That’s All For This Week
I think I’ve left you with enough to read. Please participate in the contest to guess my time! It’s super easy and it gives me a big boost when I see your guesses come across … thank you in advance! And have a great weekend!

It’s not my style to get bold or make outlandish predictions, but I absolutely guarantee that I will set a new personal best this weekend. I will come back here and say I told you so, because I know I will get the job done. As long as I don’t sleep through my alarm and I get to the start line, I will come home with a PR. You heard it here first, period.

Of course, I’m not talking about my marathon on Sunday. I’m talking about my 15K on Saturday. I know I’ll set a PR because it’s my first-ever 15K. This weekend is a triple, in a way. I’m heading out to Tampa for the Gasparilla Marathon. I’ll be running the 15K on Saturday morning at 7 a.m., a 5K at 9:30 a.m. and then the full marathon Sunday morning at 6 a.m.

15K
I’ve never run a 15K before and I’m not really looking forward to this. You might be wondering why I’d dread a race that’s only 9.3 miles when I race 26.2 every weekend. Well, it’s simple. To get a time that’s respectable for my ability, I have to run pretty fast — considerably faster than I run in a marathon. And I have to keep that pace up for 9.3 miles!

I’ll tell anybody who asks that a 10K is my least-favorite distance to race, because it’s basically a sprint for 6.2 miles. I’m thinking that this 15K is going to be pretty tough for me. I’m not good at the shorter stuff. Just going off of my best marathon time this year, 3:07:21, the race calculators say I should be able to run a 19:13 5K and a 39:55 10K. I haven’t hit either of those times, yet I’ve actually run a marathon more than seven minutes quicker than my best time this year.

My 5K PR is 19:20. My 10K PR is 40:39. Add them together and you get 59:59. The calculators say, based off my 3:07:21 in Carlsbad, that I should be able to run a 1:01:52 (6:38/mile). I’m going to set my goal at sub-1:02 (1:01:59 or better), but I don’t think I’ll hit it. I’ll certainly try, though.

Whatever my time is, it’ll be a PR, like I promised!

5K
I’ll have just under 90 minutes after the end of the 15K before I run the 5K. That’s just enough time to get some stiff legs and lose motivation. I don’t dread 5Ks as much as 10Ks, but they’re hard, too. Running 3.1 miles isn’t tough for me. But doing it so hard that my lungs just about burn is a challenge.

I guess racing at any distance is tough. I’m trying to remember why I do this? Maybe it’s the ice cream and the In-N-Out, I don’t know. But whatever the case, I come up short in 5Ks. My best was 19:20 on a pancake-flat course in 2008, although on that same course last year, I went 20:30. In all fairness, I was coming off and injury and was fighting to regain speed when I was slow last fall. But I’m not positive I’d go much quicker than 20 flat right now.

I’m going to be aiming to go as fast as I can. I have no idea what’s in me. I think I’m getting faster with the 26.2 miles of hard running I’m doing every weekend, but I’m not 100 percent. If that speed is there, maybe I can fight through the pain for 20 lousy minutes? 5Ks are interesting. I get rolling and my wheels turn almost effortlessly that first mile, then I fight through a burn in the second mile, and I finally watch my time slip away over that last mile. A 5K is one race where it’s actually OK to go out “too fast” and I certainly push it.

That all being said, my A goal is to PR (19:19), my B goal is to go sub-19:30 and my C goal is sub-20. I’ll be disappointed if I don’t go sub-20. That doesn’t mean I’ll be capable of that on Saturday given the proximity of that race to the 15K and 10 marathons this year, but I’ll still be disappointed. I expect to be able to produce a time in the 19s.

Marathon
I think I’m going to take a different approach on Sunday. Typically, I run by heart rate, take what the course gives me, and try to get as much as I can out of my body. This year has been a string of races that have been a little bit disappointing, but not by a lot. I have a 3:12, two 3:13s and a 3:15 sticking in my mind, but my 3:07 is where I want to be.

So, I think I’m going to switch it up this weekend. I know the course is pretty flat. Every course is going to have some rolling changes, but from what I know, this is a pretty level track. Instead of running by heart rate, I’m just going to go out and run by pace and try to stay in the 7:00-7:10 range. Nothing faster, regardless of what the course allows.

I’m not tremendously concerned about the impact of the 15K and the 5K and I’m curious to see if I can get myself in a good groove. I think it’s possible, but there’s only one way to find out. If I knock off miles in that range and stay consistent, I should be back in that 3:07 range. The weather and the course look favorable for me, so that’s what I’m going to try to do.

I get a lot of positive feedback when I turn a 3:12 or a 3:15, but I feel like I owe 3:0X finishes. I’d like to get a little bit of confidence back. I know I can run sub-3:10s and I want to start doing that consistently again. Fatigue is not a good enough excuse for me. In 2008, I went 3:06, 3:04 and 3:09 on a Sunday and then the following Saturday and Sunday. I know I have it in me, so I want to pull it out.

So, my A goal Sunday is 3:07:20 (new best for the year), B goal is 3:09:59 and C goal will be 3:12:37 (would be second-fastest of the year). I just feel like it’s time to step it up and produce better results.

And of course, I’m doing it in Tampa, the home course for Jen Morgan. As I mentioned yesterday, I’m really appreciative for everything she’s done for Operation Jack and I want to come up big in her race.

So that’s all I have. I’ll post a race report for the 15K and 5K on Saturday, but I don’t expect to have one for the marathon posted until that evening when I get back to California.

Have a great weekend, everybody! Thank you for your support!